22 February 2022

Will global EV sales rise 10 fold after five years?

Just the other day, there was news that sales of electric vehicles (EVs) more than doubled in the year 2021 globally compared to the previous year, and at this rate, when will sales explode 10 fold? 

Over 6.5 million electric vehicles — that include fully electric as well as plug-in hybrid cars — were sold globally in 2021. This is a surge of 109 per cent over 2020. 

Tesla’s show has been the most impressive with the car giant capturing a whopping 14 per cent share of the sales, according to a recent news report.

Will global EV sales rise 10 fold after five years?
Electric vehicle sales are surging every year.

Well, if we go by these growth figures, and considering the push towards EVs, we could see this growth at least doubling each year. 

It may be so that after the next five years, we will see the growth rate at a whopping 10 fold.

What we are seeing now is that governments — across the world — in a bid to promote clean fuel and reduce global warming, are coming up with aggressive policies to promote electric vehicles. 

In the near future, governments could create roadblocks for petrol and diesel cars like creating green zones in cities for only EVs. 

And simultaneously, companies could create barriers for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by going fully electric, say by 2030 or so. 

Different companies have drawn up different timelines to junk non-electric vehicles. These factors could be the death knell for the ICE vehicles.

Latest figures show that the global car market went up just 4 per cent in 2021 as it continued to struggle with Covid curbs and chip crunch. EV sales were just 9 per cent of total passenger car sales last year, according to market research firm Canalys. 

About 85 per cent of EVs sold globally were in China as well as Europe. Even as demand is on a growth trajectory, only 4 per cent of new cars sold in the US last year were electric vehicles (in figures, it is about 535,000 units). 

More than 3.2 million EVs were sold in China in 2021. This represents half of all electric cars sold globally. This is also 2 million more EVs sold in the country than in 2020. 

Many new cars are rolling out every month in each of the market segments — from small hatchbacks to costly sedans and SUVs, according to Jason Low, principal analyst at Canalys. 

Tesla’s Model 3 was the highest selling EV car in Europe last year. However, the Volkswagen (VW) Group was the top maker of EVs. VW’s brands like Audi, Skoda and VW saw commendable sales. 

Another expert said that the demand for EVs was so high in Europe that 25 per cent sales represented electric cars. But the waiting period is a deterrent for EVs. It has been almost a year in Europe. 

After Tesla, the Volkswagen Group was second (in sales), having a 12 per cent market share. SAIC, which also includes SGMW (the combination of SAIC, GM and Wuling) clinched the third position with 11 per cent share.

And with automakers setting their deadlines for full EV transmission, sales could jump 10 times in five years because the time frames would make customers hurry for e-cars while abandoning fuel vehicles.

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